Friday, September 14, 2012

The issue of predictability in education

On the Solutions Focus discussion list, one member (Hans-Peter Korn) recently posted the following recommendations
  • "...deal with complexity in an iterative/adaptive way of work based on small solution-increments produced within short timeboxes..."
  • "...(most) systems should be seen as complex... Don't try to act on them based on the paradigm of predictability and don't apply huge and detailed analyses and long term planning!"
Schooling is a complex endeavour. Yet schools and school systems, world-wide, continue to make major changes of direction (goals, curriculum, ...) and processes (organisation, pedagogy, assessement, ...) based on the idea that they can predict the outcomes and all will be well, if only the staff follow the plans and policies involved.

In a sense, this approach is almost "fool-proof", at least for those initiating the changes
  • the plans and changes are usually based on successful ('best') practices elsewhere which 'proves' that the proposed changes do 'work'
  • if things do improve the initiators are proved right, and should be rewarded
  • if things don't improve then it must be because staff did not follow the plans and policies properly
It is usually easy to show that "staff did not follow the plans and policies properly" after the event. Making major changes, on a large scale is usually quite difficult and disruptive. It can be useful to keep Hofstadter's Law in mind:
  • "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."
Not only does it take longer, it also costs more!! And because of the rate of change expected, many major changes are disrupted by other subsequent major changes. For example, lack of expected success frequently prompts those in charge to introduce new major changes to fix what isn't succeeding, further disrupting the capacity of staff to achieve what is hoped for.

Hans-Peter is recommending strategies like Solutions Focus that achieve significant improvement while requiring minimal change.

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